The Arizona Cardinals travel to Buffalo in Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season for a showdown with the Bills. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on September 8th at Highmark Stadium and the game will be televised exclusively on the CBS Sports Network and Paramount+ in the United States. In Canada, the game will also be available on DAZN.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with Cardinals listed as 7-point road underdogs. The spread has narrowed by a full point after early week betting, as Arizona is currently available at +6. The total for this matchup is 48.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 1 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Buffalo Bills Need Shakir and Kincaid to Step Up
Buffalo made the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season in 2023-24, narrowly beating out the Miami Dolphins in a tightly contested battle for the AFC East crown after both teams finished with identical 11-6 records. The Bills cruised past Pittsburgh 31-17 in the Wild Card Round before losing a heartbreaking 27-24 decision to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round.
There were some big changes to the Bills offense during the offseason, as veteran WR Stefon Diggs left town for Houston after another year of mixed results and consistent drama. QB Josh Allen will certainly have one less diva to worry about, as Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir have nowhere near the ego issues that caused so much friction with Diggs. Buffalo also expects big things from rookie wideout Keon Coleman after taking him with the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 Draft.
James Cook looks to have the lead role out of the backfield, at least for the first several months of the season. Cook racked up 1,122 total rushing yards and six touchdowns last year, as Buffalo tried to expose Allen to less contact near the goal line than they have in previous seasons. RB Ray Davis will provide depth behind Cook after rumbling for over 1,100 yards at the University of Kentucky in 2023.
On the other side of the ball, Buffalo was a top 10 defensive unit across most statistical categories including total yards allowed per game (307.2) and points per game (18.3). The Bills did a fantastic job defending against the pass in particular, limiting opposing offenses to an average of just 196.6 yards per game through the air.
Arizona Cardinals Fortunes Tied to the Health of Kyler Murray
It was yet another lost season for the Cardinals in 2023-24, as QB Kyler Murray sat out for most of the year en route to an abysmal 4-13 record overall. If Murray can find a way to stay healthy, Arizona should be able to at least stay close to the .500 mark in 2024-25. That appears to be much easier said than done, however, as Murray has managed to start just 19 total games since 2022.
RB James Conner was a workhorse on the ground last year for the Cardinals, lumbering for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. However, his three down role definitely appears to be taking a bit of a toll on his body, as injury concerns seem to be a mounting issue. Rookie Trey Benson may be called upon sooner rather than later if Conner can’t find a way to stay healthy for the full season.
Murray will have plenty of help on the outside in 2024-25 as rookie sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. appears poised and ready to lead the way for the Arizona receiving corps. TE Trey McBride will also be a large part of the offense after exploding for a team-leading 81 receptions and 825 total receiving yards last year.
Defensively, the Cardinals really struggled applying consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks in 2023-24. Their weak front seven was also repeatedly exposed by the run, as Arizona surrendered an NFL worst 143.2 yards per game average on the ground.
Free NFL Betting Prediction and Pick: UNDER 48.5
Taking the points and rolling with Arizona to stay within a touchdown seemed like a decent play earlier in the week, but with the line rapidly getting sharper I would prefer to look for value elsewhere. Therefore, I think the best single game bet in this particular spot is with the game total. Buffalo has a ton of question marks on offense, while the Cardinals should feed James Conner the ball early and often on the road here in Week 1. Therefore, I think game flow considerations point towards a lower scoring affair than many may expect.
Arizona needs to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands for as long as possible if they hope to stay competitive with the Bills. The high flying Buffalo offense of old also looks very different this year, and while I have full confidence that they will find a ton of success in the second half of the year, it may take several games to work all the kinks out with both Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer on the roster.
Both defenses were above the NFL average defending against the pass in 2023-24, so there is no doubt in my mind that each team will likely focus on establishing the run early. While I’m certainly not expecting a defensive struggle for the entire game, I much prefer taking a shot on the under 48.5 total points scored than flipping a coin and choosing either team against a pretty tough spread.
