The Indianapolis Colts (1-2) will attempt to string together their first winning streak of the 2024-25 NFL season in a tough matchup against an AFC rival that currently boasts the number one overall scoring defense in the entire league. A lack of consistent production on offense hasn’t been a problem at all for the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) as their rock-solid defense has catapulted them to the top of the AFC North for the time being. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on September 29th at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Not many people expected the Steelers to be ranked ahead of both Cincinnati and Baltimore in the AFC North standing at the end of September, but Pittsburgh has managed to do just that. Meanwhile, sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson and the rest of the Colts offense need to get back on track in a hurry after two subpar performances that saw them score just 31 total points combined.
The good news for Indianapolis is that the AFC South looks to be a two-horse race just three weeks into the season, as both Jacksonville and Tennessee have lost three straight games to begin the year 0-3 overall. However, the Colts still need to turn things around fast if they have any shot at catching Houston for the division crown.
Matchup Details, Betting Market Information and Where to Watch
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Steelers listed as 2-point road favorites. The spread has tightened by a full point after early betting, as Pittsburgh is currently available at -1 on most sportsbooks. The total for this matchup is 40 points. Viewers hoping to watch the game should note that it will be televised on CBS. In Canada, the game will also be available on DAZN.
Pittsburgh Steelers Unplug Chargers Offense At Home
The patented “Steel Curtain” defense that put Pittsburgh on the map decades ago appears to have returned, as the Steelers recorded their third straight victory last weekend to start the year 3-0. QB Justin Fields didn’t have to do much through the air, throwing just a single touchdown while completing a very efficient 25 out of 32 total passing attempts. Fields also found the end zone on the ground despite averaging just a single yard per carry.
Veteran RB Najee Harris continues to lead the way on the ground for Pittsburgh, racking up a game-high 70 rushing yards on 18 carries. He appears to be in line for another large workload here in Week 4, as Jaylen Warren is currently listed as week to week after suffering a knee injury.
It’s pretty tough to overstate what a fantastic job the Steelers have done defensively over the first month of the regular season, as they have yet to give up more than ten points in a single game through their first three outings. Pittsburgh was fantastic on the ground against Los Angeles, as no Chargers rusher managed to gain more than 44 yards.
Indianapolis Colts Fend Off Late Chicago Comeback
It wasn’t exactly the prettiest home win for Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football, as they almost lost a commanding double-digit lead in the second half after getting outscored 13-7 over the final quarter of the game. QB Anthony Richardson’s struggles continued, as he completed only 50% of his passes for 167 yards while also getting picked off twice.
RB Jonathan Taylor really picked up the slack for his struggling quarterback, torching the Chicago run defense for 100+ rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Wideout Alec Pierce led the way through the air, recording 44 receiving yards despite only making one catch the entire game.
The Colts defense continued to struggle against the pass in Week 3, as the secondary got torched by Chicago rookie QB Caleb Williams for almost 400 passing yards and two touchdowns. While Indianapolis did hold the Bears to just 16 total points, that was largely a function of Chicago’s poor red zone conversion rates and multiple turnovers by Williams rather than anything else.
Our Steelers vs Colts Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction and Pick
Oddsmakers are fully expecting this particular matchup to be one of the most tightly contested games on the entire schedule here in Week 4, and it’s pretty easy to see why. Both teams appear to be pretty evenly matched across the board, as Indianapolis likely has a small edge offensively while Pittsburgh has the advantage on the other side of the ball.
One factor that may go overlooked heading into the weekend has been the vastly improved play from Steelers QB Justin Fields in his first full season with the team. While Richardson steals headlines with his extremely unique skill-set, Fields has quietly gone about his business and has managed to severely limit most of the costly mistakes that routinely plagued him in the past.
Against the Spread Betting Market Tip: Steelers -1
Despite not having home advantage in this particular matchup, I think that Pittsburgh is the optimal play against the spread in this matchup. The gap offensively between these two AFC rivals is a lot closer than it might appear, while Indianapolis is nowhere near as strong as the Steelers are on the defensive side of the ball.
While I fully expect this game to come right down to the wire on Sunday afternoon, I have absolutely no faith in a suspect Colts defense that just surrendered well over 400 total yards of offense to a Chicago team that had really struggled to move the ball in both of their first two outings. Additionally, Indianapolis also got torched on the ground by both Houston in Week 1 and Green Bay in Week 2, so that doesn’t bode well either considering how run-heavy this Steelers offense is.
I’m confident that Pittsburgh will find a way to grind out an ugly win on the road in this spot, which is why I’d much rather take a shot with the Steelers against the spread than to roll the dice and hope for an Anthony Richardson breakout game in an extremely bad matchup against arguably the current top overall defense in the entire NFL. Lay the single point and take the slight road favorite to cover the spread in what is basically a pick’em game.
