Fans should be in for a highly entertaining NFC South battle here in Week 4, as these two longtime division rivals will clash for the first time in the 2024-25 regular season on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 3 losses, as the New Orleans Saints (2-1) couldn’t hold on late against Philadelphia while the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) came up just short against Kansas City on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on September 29th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The Falcons can move up from third place overall in the division very quickly with a home victory on Sunday afternoon, as Atlanta has a shot to get back to .500 overall after dropping two close games in September already. Meanwhile, New Orleans will look to rebound after losing their first game of the season in a tough matchup against the Eagles.
Despite scoring 40+ points in back to back games to open the month of September, the Saints struggled to move the ball last weekend despite an appealing matchup on paper against a suspect Philadelphia defense. On the other side, Atlanta hasn’t really shown much explosiveness through their first three games as they are currently averaging well under 20 points per game to start the year.
Matchup Details, Betting Market Information and Where to Watch
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Falcons listed as 1.5-point home favorites. The spread has narrowed slightly after early betting, as Atlanta is currently available at -1 on most sportsbooks. The total for this matchup is 42.5 points. Viewers hoping to watch the game should note that it will be televised on FOX. In Canada, the game will also be available on DAZN.
New Orleans Saints Stumble Late Against Visiting Eagles
Despite leading for most of the game, the Saints couldn’t find a way to hold on down the stretch against a gritty Philadelphia squad that was battling injuries. New Orleans jumped out to an early lead in the first half and were up 12-7 with under ten minutes left in the fourth quarter until allowing Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown with just over 60 seconds left on the game-clock.
Derek Carr wasn’t at his best against Philadelphia, completing just 14 out of 25 passing attempts for 142 yards and a single touchdown. RB Alvin Kamara struggled to get anything going on the ground after a hot start to the season, rushing for an average of only 3.3 yards per carry. Wideout Chris Olave was clearly the star of the game on offense, making six receptions for a team-high 86 yards and a touchdown.
On the surface, the Saints defense appeared to continue their strong play to start the season against the high-flying Eagles, limiting Hurts and Co. to just 15 total points all game. However, they had absolutely no answer for Saquon Barkley or Dallas Goedert, as the two remaining primary options for Hurts torched New Orleans for over 300 total yards of offense combined.
Atlanta Falcons Come Up Short Against Kansas City
The Falcons couldn’t quite find a way to pull off the home upset against Kansas City on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, falling 22-17 despite leading by a single point at the half. Veteran Kirk Cousins continued to be serviceable under center, going 20/29 for 230 yards and a touchdown. However, flashy RB Bijan Robinsons struggled on the ground despite finding the end zone, rushing for only 31 yards on 16 carries.
Drake London led the way for Atlanta’s receiving corps, racking up six catches for 67 yards while also scoring his second touchdown of the season. Depth WR Darnell Mooney also chipped in, making a team-high eight receptions for 66 yards.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons defense made life difficult for Patrick Mahomes for the most part, limiting the star QB to 217 passing yards and two touchdowns. While they did also record an interception, Atlanta struggled to contain WR Rashee Rice, as he torched the secondary for 110 yards and a touchdown on a game-high 12 catches.
Our Saints vs Falcons Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction and Pick
Oddsmakers currently have this matchup listed as basically a pick’em, so I’m fully expecting a close, back and forth affair between these two NFC South rivals here in Week 4. While I certainly expect this game to be decided by less than a full touchdown, I still think there is some value with the slight road underdog in this spot.
Atlanta has struggled to consistently put points on the board all season, as Bijan Robinson hasn’t found a way to generate an explosive statline as of yet due to some tough matchups on the ground. Kirk Cousins also appears to have a fairly limited upside, as he clearly looks to be more of a game manager at this point in his career.
Against the Spread Betting Market Tip: Saints +1
Even though New Orleans had a bit of a down week against Philadelphia, they still have had one of the most explosive offenses in the entire NFL through the first month of the season. Alvin Kamara has really been a force to start the year on the ground after a very pedestrian 2023-24 season, which has helped spread the field for the speedy receiving duo of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
While both defenses have been well above average through the first three weeks of the season, the Saints have yet to surrender more than 19 points in a single game. Atlanta has now given up 20+ in back to back weeks, so I think that New Orleans should find a way to score at least a couple of touchdowns on Sunday afternoon. I’m going to take the single point and roll with the slight road favorite to continue their hot start – take the Saints to cover!
