Two AFC South rivals meet in Texas on Sunday afternoon, as the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) are still searching for their first win of the 2024-25 regular season after a horrid start. The Jags look to be in tough yet again here in Week 4, as the Houston Texans (2-1) will be hungry for a victory after a lopsided loss on the road in Minneapolis. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on September 29th at NRG Stadium.
Rumors are already swirling around the job stability of the entire Jacksonville coaching staff, as nobody expected the start of their season to look this ugly after they finished 9-8 overall last year and made it out of the Wild Card Round in 2022-23. Meanwhile, Houston wasn’t even close to being competitive against a surging Vikings squad in Week 3 after narrowly winning two straight games in Weeks 1 and 2.
Drastically improved play on the defensive side of the ball will be the key to this matchup for the Jags, as they just gave up 47 points on the road in Buffalo. That will certainly be easier said than done, as Houston boasts one of the most formidable offensive rosters in the entire NFL.
Matchup Details, Betting Market Information and Where to Watch
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Texans listed as 4.5-point home favorites. The spread ballooned in a hurry after early betting, as Houston is currently available at -6.5 on most sportsbooks. The total for this matchup is 45 points. Viewers hoping to watch the game should note that it will be televised on CBS. In Canada, the game will also be available on DAZN.
Jacksonville Jaguars Trampled By Bills On Monday Night Football
Things got out of hand in a hurry for the Jaguars in primetime on Monday night, as Buffalo put on a show for the home town faithful en route to a dominant 47-10 victory. Trevor Lawrence was completely ineffective for the vast majority of the game, completing just 21 out 38 total passing attempts for only 178 yards and a single touchdown.
Travis Etienne Jr. did manage to find some room on the ground before negative game script issues forced Jacksonville to abandon the run for basically the entire second half. Wideout Christian Kirk finally showed some signs of life after a brutal start to the year, hauling in a team-high eight catches for 79 receiving yards.
It’s tough to imagine how the Jaguars defense could have looked any worse in Week 3, as Josh Allen and the rest of the Buffalo offense carved up the secondary for a ridiculous four touchdowns through the air. WR Khalil Shakir continued his strong start to the year, as his increased usage after the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis resulted in six catches for 72 yards and a touchdown.
Houston Texans Handed Decisive Loss By Minnesota
Despite recording two consecutive victories to start their 2024-25 season, Houston got a bit of a wake up call in Week 3 after getting crushed by the Vikings on the road by a score of 34-7. The Texans fell behind by two scores in the first half and never really got back into the game, as they only managed to find the end zone once all afternoon.
C.J. Stroud struggled with his accuracy all afternoon, barely completing 65% of his passing attempts while also throwing two interceptions. Backup RB Cam Akers didn’t even come close to filling in the production void left by starter Joe Mixon, as Akers only managed 21 rushing yards on nine carries.
On the other side of the ball, Houston continued their early season woes defending against the pass, allowing Sam Darnold to throw four touchdowns. The Texans secondary did manage to keep explosive WR Justin Jefferson under 100 receiving yards, but he still scored a six-yard touchdown to put Minnesota on the board early in the first quarter to help set the tone.
Our Jaguars vs Texans Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction and Pick
While I would have loved to jump all over the Texans side of this matchup when they opened up at just -4.5, I still think there is value to be found with Houston all the way up to -6.5. Jacksonville was an unmitigated disaster on offense against Buffalo, so it’s hard to expect any sort of substantial turnaround after a short week of rest.
The Jags have shown no signs that they can keep pace with above average offenses, which doesn’t exactly bode well considering that their opponent in Week 4 boasts one of the most explosive passing attacks in the entire NFL. It certainly looks like it will be another long outing for one of the worst secondaries in the league, since C.J Stroud should be able to find the trio of Collins, Diggs, and Dell early and often on Sunday.
Against the Spread Betting Market Tip: Texans -6.5
Not only is Jacksonville coming off an outing in which they gave up almost 50 total points, they also face the unenviable task of a second consecutive road game on a full 24 hours less rest due to their appearance on Monday Night Football. Houston will be extremely motivated to come out strong at home after getting embarrassed on the road in Week 3, and Lawrence doesn’t appear to have the necessary downfield weapons on offense after losing Calvin Ridley during the offseason.
To make things even worse for the Jaguars, Evan Engram also appears to be iffy for Week 4 after missing the game against Buffalo due to a hamstring injury. Even though rookie TE Brenton Strange filled in admirably and scored Jacksonville’s only touchdown of the game, he still only caught two total passes for 12 yards. Ultimately, the Texans have too many weapons offensively and should find a way to win this game by at least a touchdown. Take the home favorite to cover!
