First place in the AFC West Division is temporarily up for grabs here in Week 4 of the 2024-25 NFL season as the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) head to California to battle the rival Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) on Sunday afternoon. Jim Harbaugh and the rest of the Chargers coaching staff will certainly have their hands full on defense in a tough matchup against Patrick Mahomes. Kickoff is set for 4:25 PM EST on September 29th at SoFi Stadium.
Kansas City recorded their third straight win to start the year in Week 3, narrowly edging out Atlanta 22-17 on Sunday Night Football to stay unbeaten. Los Angeles wasn’t quite as fortunate, as the Chargers scored just ten total points in a double-digit road loss to Pittsburgh after two straight previous victories.
After several high-scoring battles over the past several seasons, the latest installment in this classic rivalry is shaping up to be a bit slower-paced. Los Angeles has demonstrated a clear run-first strategy on offense, while Kansas City has learned to win close games without needing to solely rely on pure offensive output.
Matchup Details, Betting Market Information and Where to Watch
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Chiefs listed as 1.5-point road favorites. The spread has shifted significantly after early betting, as Kansas City is currently available at +1 on most sportsbooks. The total for this matchup is 37 points. Viewers hoping to watch the game should note that it will be televised on CBS. In Canada, the game will also be available on DAZN.
Kansas City Chiefs Soar Past Falcons In Primetime
It looked like the Chiefs win streak was in jeopardy at times against Atlanta, as Kansas City trailed the Falcons by a single point at the start of the third quarter. However, Mahomes and Co. turned it on down the stretch when it mattered most en route to a gritty 22-17 comeback win.
Wideout Rashee Rice continues to be the biggest story on offense for KC through the first month of the regular season, as he easily surpassed the 100-yard receiving plateau yet again in a monster 12-reception outing against the Falcons.
After years of being carried by the offense, the Kansas City defense has really excelled as of late. Week 3 was no exception, as the Chiefs limited Atlanta to two touchdowns while also keeping shifty Bijan Robinson to just 1.9 yards per carry on the ground.
Los Angeles Chargers Suffer Power Outage Versus Steelers
Nothing really went right offensively for Los Angeles in Week 3 after routinely running into a brick wall in the form of the Steelers defense on the road. QB Justin Herbert wasn’t bad, going 12/18 for 125 passing yards and a single touchdown. He certainly didn’t get a lot of help from his receiving corps, as no LA pass-catcher recorded more than 44 total yards.
Not a single member of the Chargers bruising backfield found any room to run on the ground either, as both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards combined for only 53 total rushing yards all afternoon.
The Chargers defense had a decent outing against Pittsburgh, holding QB Justin Fields to 245 passing yards and one touchdown while also recording an interception. Los Angeles also was solid on the ground defending against the run, keeping Najee Harris to an average of just 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.
Our Chiefs vs Chargers Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction and Pick
This AFC West matchup is shaping up to be a slower-paced, defense-first battle as both teams seem to be content to play the long game to start the season. There is certainly no doubt that Los Angeles will want to control possession and run the clock as much as possible in order to keep Mahomes off the field, which is why the total for this game is currently one of the lowest on the board.
Even with the rapid decline of Travis Kelce and the injury to Isiah Pacheco, I still think that the Chiefs offense should find a way to get the job done on the road in this particular spot. New starting RB Carson Steele looked decent in his first start against Atlanta, while Rashee Rice continues to be borderline unstoppable through the air.
Against the Spread Betting Market Tip: Chiefs +1
I’m happy to take the single point against the spread and roll with Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. With oddsmakers expecting this game to basically be a pick’em, it’s tough to argue against the positive results the Chiefs continue to post week after week.
While there is no doubt that KC has benefited from several questionable calls from officials to start the year, I’m still not convinced that this relatively one-dimensional Chargers offense can do enough on the ground to beat Mahomes here in Week 4.
Of course, Los Angeles looked fantastic running the ball in both Week 1 and Week 2. However, it is extremely important to note that those lopsided victories were against Las Vegas and Carolina respectively. It was a much different story for the Chargers offensively last weekend, as Pittsburgh completely shut them down.
All things considered, I much prefer taking a shot with Kansas City to cover in this matchup. They simply have a much larger sample size of consistent play on both sides of the ball, including through the air where the Chargers have struggled. Give me the Chiefs to stay unbeaten!
