The New England Patriots (1-2) will attempt to avoid dropping their third consecutive game after a thrilling opening week victory over Cincinnati, but they appear to be in tough on the road against the San Francisco 49ers (1-2). The Niners are also desperate for a victory after a brutal effort on the road in Week 3 against an injury-riddled Los Angeles offense. Kickoff is set for 4:05 PM EST on September 29th at Levi’s Stadium.
These two teams appeared to be on very different trajectories heading into the 2024-25 NFL season, as many expected San Francisco to seriously contend for the Super Bowl while New England seemed destined to finish with no more than five total wins. However, both franchises head into Week 4 with identical 1-2 records overall, as multiple injuries to star offensive players have tested the Niners depth early.
Christian McCaffrey appears to still be multiple weeks away from returning to the lineup, while the availability of both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle for Week 4 is questionable at best. However, oddsmakers are still expecting a bit of a blowout on Sunday afternoon, as the Patriots find themselves as double-digit underdogs on the road in this matchup.
Matchup Details, Betting Market Information and Where to Watch
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the 49ers listed as 10.5-point home favorites. The spread has come down by half a point after early betting, as San Francisco is currently available at -10 on most sportsbooks. The total for this matchup is 40.5 points. Viewers hoping to watch the game should note that it will be televised on FOX. In Canada, the game will also be available on DAZN.
New England Patriots Can’t Keep Up With Rival Jets
It was an ugly appearance for the Pats on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, as they were embarrassed on the road by longtime AFC East rival New York. The Jets jumped out to an early 14-3 lead in the first half and never looked back, dominating New England on both sides of the ball the entire game.
Veteran QB Jacoby Brissett and the rest of the Patriots offense couldn’t get anything going through the air, managing only 98 passing yards in a tough matchup against one of the NFL’s best secondaries. Things didn’t really go any better on the ground, as no New England rusher managed to record more than 29 yards.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense has come back to earth a little bit after a strong showing against Cincinnati back in Week 1. New England did manage to limit the Jets on the ground for the most part but still gave up a multiple touchdown game through the air to Aaron Rodgers. They also continued to struggle defending against opposing tight ends, as Tyler Conklin racked up five catches for a game-high 93 receiving yards.
San Francisco 49ers Shocked By Stubborn Rams
Things went downhill in a hurry during the second half for San Francisco in Week 3 after jumping out to an early 14-0 lead on the road in Los Angeles. Despite not having to face either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, the Niners got outscored 20-10 down the stretch en route to a second straight loss.
Brock Purdy certainly wasn’t to blame, completing 22 out of 30 total passing attempts for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Depth receiver Juan Jennings stole the show on offense, torching the Rams secondary for a ridiculous 175 yard, three touchdown outburst on a career-high 11 receptions. However, Brandon Aiyuk continued his slow start to the season while both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle joined Christian McCaffrey on the sideline due to injury.
Despite a strong performance from the secondary, San Francisco continued to struggle against the run in Week 3. RB Kyren Williams embarrassed the 49ers defense on the ground, racking up three total touchdowns and well over 100 total yards. This unit will need to figure things out in a hurry if they hope to contend for the division title in the tough NFC West.
Our Patriots vs 49ers Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction and Pick
I’m fully expecting San Francisco to win this game outright with relative ease, as there is no doubt they will be eager to bounce back after a demoralizing Week 3 outing against the Rams. However, I’m not sure there is all that much value against the spread in this matchup, as laying double-digit points to back an offense with this many critical injuries certainly seems pretty suboptimal.
New England has also demonstrated the ability to stay competitive against superior opponents multiple times this month already, as they shocked the Bengals to open the season before taking the undefeated Seahawks to overtime in Week 2.
Game Total Betting Market Tip: Under 40.5
Ultimately, the best spot for bettors in this particular matchup seems to be the Under on 40.5 total points scored. New England is averaging just 13 total points per game over their first three outings, so it seems pretty doubtful that the Pats offense will have much success here on the road against an above average defense.
On the other side, San Francisco has only averaged around 20 total points per game since a Week 1 offensive outburst against the Jets. While that was certainly an impressive showing, it is important to remember that this offense has lost both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle since then.
The Patriots have clearly shown a tendency to grind away at the game clock with a run-focused strategy due to their severely limited passing attack. Even if San Francisco finds the end zone two or three times offensively on Sunday afternoon, I’m not so sure that New England will manage to hit double-digit points in this matchup. Stay away from a tough spread and roll with the Under on 40.5 points scored instead.
